RADAR VIEW — AUGUST 2026

The system is accelerating, but unevenly. Robotics and agentic capability are producing measurable movement; AI Science is beginning to produce stronger, inspectable claims. Frontier discourse is accelerating faster than the evidence. The gap matters.

• No demonstrated recursive improvement loop in which AI materially builds a more capable successor.
• No broad autonomous competence across unfamiliar, long-horizon real-world tasks.
• No public, independently verified ASI system.
• No evidence that current capability gains are converging into a single general regime change.
• No basis for treating frontier rhetoric as a substitute for primary artifacts and independent verification.

The evidence is moving. The rhetoric is moving faster. The gap matters. The missing regime change is still recursive improvement: without it, acceleration remains a set of uneven advances rather than a self-reinforcing takeoff. The system is accelerating. It is not yet running away.